CONGRATULATIONS PRESIDENT OBAMA!!!!!

Winbattlegroundstates Predicts an Obama Victory!!

When I started to write this blog , though it was apparent that the ground conditions favored an Obama victory, the race was still unpredictable and tight. with less than two weeks to the election all the indicators are predicting a landslide electoral win for Senator Obama. The down turn in the US economy in recent weeks and the lack of a clear message on the part of the McCain camp has solidified an Obama lead in almost all battleground states. Early voting trends like large African American turnout in the south and, large Democratic turnouts across the country are pointing towards one thing: an Obama presidency . I would also like to go a step further and predict that Senator Obama will win the election with about 350 electoral votes.

VP Nominations Change the Dynamics of the Race

Well a lot has happened since I blogged last a few weeks back. Joe Biden is the Democratic Vice presidential candidate and the Gov. Sarah Palin is Senator McCain’s Running mate.
First of all let me talk about Senator Obama’s VP Choice.
Senator Joe Biden was probably the most conventional choice he could have made. Senator Obama was having problems with white blue collar voters, among whom Senator Biden is very popular and he is a foreign policy expert who could balance another weakness in the Democratic candidate. Plus he is a six term senator from Delaware which makes him very “experienced”. Anyway this was a pretty safe choice and the Russia-Georgia conflict probably influenced this decision to some extent.
Will this help Obama ? well may be, but not much. At the end of the day the election is about Obama and though Biden may be able to help him with some demographics it may not make a significant difference.
Now moving onto Senator McCain’s choice. The choosing of Gov, Sarah Palin, a virtually unknown first term governer from Alaska, was nothing short of a political Bombshell. This is totally different from what Senator Obama did and was a remarkably bold thing to do. It was an out of the box choice which could make or break his campaign. But if you ask me it was a great decision. First of all the election is Senator Obama’s to lose. The dynamics on the ground overwhelmingly favor the democrats and only by taking risks can Senator McCain hope to win this election. The choice of the Governor has changed the race in two ways. It has excited Republican base and will probably help increase what otherwise would have been a lower than usual turnout of evangelical. Secondly it has brought dynamism and attention to the McCain campaign. If the McCain campaign can have good convention next week he probably will be able to make some ground in Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and many other swing states with considerable evangelical populations now tilting towards Obama.
Anyway the past few weeks have turn this race in to a really close and interesting election.

Senator Obama Targets " New Battleground States"

Last week the Obama campaign said it was going to aggressively campaign in some traditionally Republican states, namely: Montana, South Dakota, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Alaska.

This strategy has generated some buzz among the political pundits and we shall talk about some of their ideas. First of all some of the states like Virginia have become competitive due to demographic reasons, such as population increases in urban areas. Other states such as North Carolina have large populations of African Americans whose votes can tilt the state in Senator Obama’s favor if they actually vote in large numbers. The northern mountainous states may be turning purple due to the unpopularity of the Republican brand. Indiana of course borders Illinois, which is Senator Obama’s home state.

Many analysts say apart from Virginia Senator Obama is unlikely to win any of these So-called new battleground states. Though that may be the case poll after poll shows these states remaining competitive. But regardless of winning most analysts agree that the Obama campaign with its massive founding is trying to force Senator McCain to spend in states he would have otherwise taken for granted. This would handicap his campaign in other traditional swing states.

Well in any case we are in uncharted seas and we will have to wait and see whether Senator Obama’s campaign strategy pays off.

Oh! And finally a new study by economists at the University of Maryland suggests that Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Senator Obama helped him pick up approximately a 1000,000 additional votes. Seems like some celebrity endorsements do change political races!

Its Time for Some Campaigning!

Well here's something I got from the web. Its really cool. Thought we should have some light-hearted fun as well!!!



Heres the link to the original site.
http://sendables.jibjab.com/

Polls tightening – Close election this year too?

The opinion polls conducted during the past week showed the presidential election becoming closer in many key battleground states, such as Michigan, Ohio and Florida.

Even in Pennsylvania where Senator Obama was ahead by double digits, the lead has been cut to around seven percentage points.

A couple of weeks back it seemed like Senator Obama was running away with the election, but now Senator McCain seems to be gaining some ground. This trend prompted some commentators to draw comparisons between this election and the 1988 presidential election.

In 1988 Democrat Michael Dukakis led the then Vice President George H.W. Bush by almost 25 percentage points with 100 days left for the election. His campaign made several disastrous blunders which helped the Republican attack machine to wipe out this lead and ultimately to win the White house.

Though there are considerable differences between 1988 and 2008 there are things that both candidates need to pay attention to. First of all The Obama campaign has up to now run a very disciplined campaigned and was doing extremely well with the electorate. But in political campaigns confidence can turn to cockiness, having detrimental consequences. The bottom line is that around 10 percent of the voters are still undecided and hence the independent vote is still up for grabs. Whoever takes it will carry the election. Though most election projection sites still give Senator Obama a significant lead in electoral votes, things can fall apart like a stack of dominos. The moment a significant percentage of the independents go Senator McCain’s way many key battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado will go red. Thus it is always important to realize that there is still 3 months of campaigning left. As they say nothing’s signed, sealed and delivered in American Politics.

As for Senator McCain he will need to do more to get independents onboard, especially those who need to be reassured on his ability to handle the economy. Though Senator Obama has had a slight dip in the polls he has many things going his way in this election. So the McCain campaign will need to work hard to win the independent voters, who by the way are not very impressed by “rock star” candidates. The other plus for you is that most of these independent Midwestern voters are Centre-right in there political outlook. Hence they will relate to you more than they will to senator Obama on most issues.

Colorado

Colorado with 9 electoral votes is a key battleground state in this election. Though it has voted Republican in nine out of the past ten elections (the state backed Bill Clinton in 1992), it has an independent electorate.

Colorado has a non-Hispanic white population of around 75 percent and a large chunk of the remainder is Hispanic. The most significant trend in the change of demographics in state is the large increase in the Hispanic population.

Democrats are strong especially in the Denver Metropolitan area, the college towns of Fort Collins and Boulder, southern Colorado, and in the western ski resort counties.

Republicans are strong in the eastern plains, Colorado Springs and the western part of the State.

The unique aspect of Colorado is that the urban area does not necessarily back the Democrats as we have seen in other states. In fact some of the rapidly growing Denver suburbs tend to lean Republican. (The 2004 map is shown Kerry- Blue, Bush -Red).

What to do Senator Obama - Recent polls suggest that you have made significant inroads into the Latino electorate. This will serve you well in Colorado and a few other states. The key for you is to get as many Latino votes as possible to offset the traditionally Republican White voters.

What to do Senator McCain – Well it seems like you are losing the Hispanic vote by a considerable margin to Senator Obama. You need to reverse this trend in order hold on to Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Also try to get your base out on Election Day – If we’ve learned one lesson from the 2004 election, its – Turnout! Turnout! Turnout!